Values of geographic avoidance were above null expectations for two cryptic species pairs, suggesting that interspecific competition could have contributed to shaping their broad-scale distributions. We project changes in range suitability under climate change taking into account effects of geographic avoidance. We compare outputs to null models based on pairs of virtual species and to expectations based on ecological similarity and fine-scale coexistence mechanisms. We apply the measure to 10 Palearctic bat species belonging to four morphologically similar cryptic groups in which competition is likely to occur. We develop and evaluate a measure of geographic avoidance that uses outputs of species distribution models to quantify geographic exclusion patterns expected if interspecific competition affects broad-scale distributions.
We aim to test whether spatial exclusion between potentially competing species can be detected at the species range scale, and whether this pattern relates to fine-scale mechanisms of coexistence. The contribution of biotic interactions to shaping broad-scale species distributions is, however, still debated, partly due to the difficulty of detecting their effects. The need to forecast range shifts under future climate change has motivated an increasing interest in better understanding the role of biotic interactions in driving diversity patterns.
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